On November 10, 2026, the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its fourth quarter housing forecast. It now expects 2026 to finish weaker than it projected in August, followed by a modest recovery in 2027. Here is what it says about Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, and what I would do with it.
What changed in the forecast
- BC sales in 2026: forecast down 4.5% to just over 67,000. In August, BCREA forecast 69,325 (down 1.2%).
- BC sales in 2027: forecast up 7.2% to about 71,840. In August, BCREA forecast 74,500.
- BC average price: forecast down 1.2% to about $941,200 in 2026, then up 2.4% to $964,200 in 2027.
BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson pointed to an oil price shock, trade tensions with the U.S., slower immigration and rising interest rates. The forecast also notes that active listings are at their highest level since 2015 and that new-home inventory is elevated.
The local numbers
- Greater Vancouver: sales forecast at about 23,000 in 2026 (down about 3%) and 25,000 in 2027 (up 8.7%). Average price forecast at $1.223 million in 2026 and $1.25 million in 2027.
- Fraser Valley: sales forecast at 11,000 in 2026 (down 4.4%) and 12,000 in 2027 (up 9.1%). Average price forecast at $962,900 in 2026 (down 4.8%) and $980,000 in 2027 (up 1.8%).
- Chilliwack area: sales forecast to fall from about 2,300 to 1,900, down 18%.
These are BCREA’s forecasts, not results. Its 2027 outlook assumes lower fixed mortgage rates and an easing of the effect of new U.S. tariffs. If those do not happen, the rebound may be smaller or later.
Where rates stand today
The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate is 2.50%, after the October 28 increase. The next decision is December 9. On November 11, Ratehub listed a lowest 5-year fixed rate of 4.44%. Ratehub also noted that 5-year Government of Canada bond yields have fallen to their lowest level since early September. Fixed rates tend to follow those yields, but no lender has to follow.
What buyers should do
- Use today’s supply. With active listings at their highest since 2015, you have more choice and more room to negotiate on price and conditions.
- Get pre-approved now and ask your lender about a rate hold. If fixed rates ease, you can still take the lower rate.
- If BCREA is right about 2027, more buyers may return next year. Waiting for a “perfect” bottom has a cost too.
What sellers should do
- Price to today’s market. In the Fraser Valley, the average price is forecast down 4.8% this year. Buyers are comparing you with many other listings.
- Presentation matters more when supply is high. Small repairs, clean photos and a clear price strategy help you stand out.
- If you are buying and selling, plan both moves together so you are not caught between two markets.
Let’s talk about your plan
Every street and property type moves differently. If you want to know what this forecast means for your home or your search in Surrey or the Fraser Valley, call or text me at 604-785-5555 or reach me through my contact page.
Muzaffar Manghat, REALTOR®, Sutton Premier Realty
Sources
- Canadian Mortgage Trends / The Canadian Press: Real estate association forecasts B.C. home sales to slide 4.5% this year (November 10, 2026)
- Daily Hive: Metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley home sales forecast to rebound in 2027 (November 11, 2026)
- Indo-Canadian Voice: BCREA August 2026 forecast
- Ratehub: Best 5-year fixed mortgage rates (updated November 11, 2026)
This article is general information, not financial, mortgage or legal advice. Statistics are believed reliable but not guaranteed. This is not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with a brokerage.
